{"id":2492,"date":"2016-10-07T16:57:33","date_gmt":"2016-10-07T16:57:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/?p=2492"},"modified":"2016-10-07T17:15:58","modified_gmt":"2016-10-07T17:15:58","slug":"rodunarval-reyndist-vel-i-kjori-a-formanni-samfylkingarinnar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/?p=2492","title":{"rendered":"R\u00f6\u00f0unarval reyndist vel \u00ed kj\u00f6ri \u00e1 formanni Samfylkingarinnar"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00deorkell Helgason og \u00de\u00f3r\u00f0ur H\u00f6skuldsson<\/u><\/p>\n

Kj\u00f6r formanns Samfylkingarinnar f\u00f3r fram dagana 28. ma\u00ed til 3. j\u00fan\u00ed 2016. \u00cd frambo\u00f0i voru \u00feau Gu\u00f0mundur Ari Sigurj\u00f3nsson, Helgi Hj\u00f6rvar, Magn\u00fas Orri Schram og Oddn\u00fd Har\u00f0ard\u00f3ttir.<\/p>\n

Vi\u00f0 kj\u00f6ri\u00f0 var beitt a\u00f0fer\u00f0 f\u00e6ranlegs atkv\u00e6\u00f0is<\/em> (e. STV e\u00f0a Single Transferable Vote<\/em>) og var \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed fyrsta sinn sem a\u00f0fer\u00f0in var notu\u00f0 \u00ed vali \u00e1 einstaklingi \u00ed opinberu kj\u00f6ri h\u00e9r \u00e1 landi \u2013 eftir \u00fev\u00ed sem best er vita\u00f0. Samkv\u00e6mt a\u00f0fer\u00f0inni var kj\u00f3sendum gert a\u00f0 velja einn frambj\u00f3\u00f0anda a\u00f0 a\u00f0alvali en s\u00ed\u00f0an gefinn kostur \u00e1 a\u00f0 ra\u00f0a \u00f6\u00f0rum, einum e\u00f0a fleiri, \u00ed forgangsr\u00f6\u00f0 sem varaval.<\/p>\n

Talningin<\/p>\n

Lj\u00f3si er varpa\u00f0 \u00e1 uppgj\u00f6rsa\u00f0fer\u00f0ina \u00ed me\u00f0fylgjandi s\u00faluriti. \u00dear hefur hver frambj\u00f3\u00f0andi sinn lit.<\/p>\n

\"rodunarval-reyndist-vel-i-kjori-a-formanni-samfylkingarinnar-mynd\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fyrsta hrina, s\u00fdnir hvernig atkv\u00e6\u00f0i a\u00f0 a\u00f0alvali kj\u00f3senda skiptist \u00e1 milli frambj\u00f3\u00f0enda. Oddn\u00fd Har\u00f0ard\u00f3ttir hlaut 42,1% a\u00f0alvalsatkv\u00e6\u00f0a. \u00dear sem \u00fea\u00f0 er ekki hreinn meirihluti m\u00e6lir talningarreglan fyrir um a\u00f0 s\u00e1 sem f\u00e6st f\u00e9kk atkv\u00e6\u00f0i, Gu\u00f0mundur Ari, skuli d\u00e6mdur \u00far leik og atkv\u00e6\u00f0i greidd honum f\u00e6r\u00f0 til hinna \u00ed samr\u00e6mi vi\u00f0 \u00f3skir kj\u00f3senda a\u00f0 fyrsta varavali. \u00cd annarri hrinu hefur hlutur \u00feeirra \u00feriggja sem eftir eru aukist nokku\u00f0, \u00fe\u00f3 ekki n\u00f3g til a\u00f0 neinn \u00feeirra n\u00e1i hreinum meirihluta. \u00dev\u00ed ver\u00f0ur enn a\u00f0 f\u00e6ra til atkv\u00e6\u00f0i og \u00fe\u00e1 fr\u00e1 \u00feeim frambj\u00f3\u00f0anda sem n\u00fa hefur f\u00e6st atkv\u00e6\u00f0i, en \u00fea\u00f0 er Helgi Hj\u00f6rvar. A\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed loknu hafa atkv\u00e6\u00f0in safnast saman \u00e1 tvo frambj\u00f3\u00f0endur og \u00farslitin or\u00f0in sk\u00fdr: Oddn\u00fd Har\u00f0ard\u00f3ttir f\u00e6r t\u00e6p 60% atkv\u00e6\u00f0a en Magn\u00fas Orri r\u00fam 40%.<\/p>\n

Athyglisvert er hve f\u00e1 atkv\u00e6\u00f0i fara forg\u00f6r\u00f0um vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 kj\u00f3sendur hafi ekki tilgreint neitt varaval. Yfir 95% atkv\u00e6\u00f0a skila s\u00e9r a\u00f0 lokum til tveggja efstu frambj\u00f3\u00f0endanna.<\/p>\n

Ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0ur<\/span><\/p>\n

R\u00f6\u00f0 frambj\u00f3\u00f0endanna breytist ekki vi\u00f0 tilf\u00e6rslu atkv\u00e6\u00f0anna. Var \u00feessi r\u00f6\u00f0unara\u00f0fer\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 \u00f3\u00fe\u00f6rf? Svo er ekki. Oddn\u00fd f\u00e9kk f\u00e9kk a\u00f0 v\u00edsu flest atkv\u00e6\u00f0i \u00feegar \u00ed fyrstu hrinu, a\u00f0 a\u00f0alvali kj\u00f3senda, en h\u00fan n\u00e1\u00f0i ekki hreinum meirihluta. Me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 taka tillit til annars (og \u00ed \u00f6rf\u00e1um tilvikum \u00feri\u00f0ja) vals kj\u00f3senda m\u00e1 \u00e1 hinn b\u00f3ginn me\u00f0 sanni segja a\u00f0 Oddn\u00fd hafi noti\u00f0 stu\u00f0nings 60% kj\u00f3senda.<\/p>\n

\u00dea\u00f0 er athyglisvert, upp \u00e1 frekari not \u00feessarar a\u00f0fer\u00f0ar, a\u00f0 ekki bar nau\u00f0syn til a\u00f0 krefja kj\u00f3sendur um a\u00f0 ra\u00f0a \u00f6llum frambj\u00f3\u00f0endum. \u00cd \u00feessu tilviki, \u00feegar \u00feeir voru fj\u00f3rir, n\u00e6gir a\u00f0 ra\u00f0a tveimur, a\u00f0 velja annan a\u00f0 a\u00f0alvali og hinn til vara.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00f3fa\u00f0 var a\u00f0 beita uppgj\u00f6rsa\u00f0fer\u00f0 af \u00f6\u00f0rum toga, a\u00f0fer\u00f0 sem kennd er vi\u00f0 Condorcet nokkurn. \u00de\u00e1 er r\u00f6\u00f0un kj\u00f3senda \u00e1 frambj\u00f3\u00f0endum n\u00fdtt til samanbur\u00f0ar \u00e1 s\u00e9rhverjum tveimur \u00feeirra, og \u00feess freista\u00f0 a\u00f0 finna \u00feann sem sigrar alla hina \u00ed sl\u00edkri tvenndarkeppni. Ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u, sem f\u00e6st me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed m\u00f3ti, telja margir vera \u00fe\u00e1 mest afgerandi \u00ed \u00feessum fr\u00e6\u00f0um. Geta m\u00e1 \u00feess a\u00f0 a\u00f0fer\u00f0 af \u00feessu tagi var notu\u00f0 n\u00fdlega \u00ed pr\u00f3fkj\u00f6rum P\u00edrata fyrir komandi \u00feingkosningar. Enn og aftur ber Oddn\u00fd sigur \u00far b\u00fdtum \u00ed \u00fev\u00edl\u00edku uppgj\u00f6ri.<\/p>\n

Kj\u00f6r \u00e1 forseti \u00cdslands fer fram me\u00f0 einf\u00f6ldu meirihlutakj\u00f6ri; kj\u00f3sendur f\u00e1 a\u00f0eins einn kross til a\u00f0 tj\u00e1 val sitt. \u00c6skilegt er a\u00f0 breyta stj\u00f3rnarskr\u00e1r\u00e1kv\u00e6\u00f0um um forsetakj\u00f6r \u00feannig a\u00f0 sta\u00f0festa megi a\u00f0 kj\u00f6rinn forseti nj\u00f3ti stu\u00f0nings hreins meirihluta. Merking a\u00f0 a\u00f0alvali og einu varavali v\u00e6ri einf\u00f6ld og skilvirk a\u00f0fer\u00f0 \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed skyni.<\/p>\n

\u00cdtarlegri greiningu \u00e1 kj\u00f6ri formanns Samfylkingarinnar 2016 m\u00e1 finna h\u00e9r:\u00a0greining-a-kjori-formanns-samfylkingarinnar-2016<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00deorkell Helgason og \u00de\u00f3r\u00f0ur H\u00f6skuldsson Kj\u00f6r formanns Samfylkingarinnar f\u00f3r fram dagana 28. ma\u00ed til 3. j\u00fan\u00ed 2016. \u00cd frambo\u00f0i voru \u00feau Gu\u00f0mundur Ari Sigurj\u00f3nsson, Helgi Hj\u00f6rvar, Magn\u00fas Orri Schram og Oddn\u00fd Har\u00f0ard\u00f3ttir. Vi\u00f0 kj\u00f6ri\u00f0 var beitt a\u00f0fer\u00f0 f\u00e6ranlegs atkv\u00e6\u00f0is (e. STV e\u00f0a Single Transferable Vote) og var \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed fyrsta sinn sem a\u00f0fer\u00f0in var notu\u00f0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8,80,25],"class_list":["post-2492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-eigin-vefsida","tag-althingiskosningar","tag-kosningakerfi","tag-personukjor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2492"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2499,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2492\/revisions\/2499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thorkellhelgason.is\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}